Saturday, February 14, 2009

Saving is bad for the economy!

We have all been taught the virtues of saving money. Indian children are routinely reminded by their parents about spending less and saving more and schools teach stories extolling the virtues of thrift. In times of global economic crisis, most Indians, willingly or unwillingly, have started doing this. However, the impact of this on the Indian economy could be devastating indeed.

The basic reason is that – what is right for an individual may not be right for the economy as a whole. In difficult economic times, individuals are worried about their jobs and hence cut down on spending and start saving more. This is indeed good for the individual as it gives him a buffer in case he actually loses his job. However, imagine a scenario in which all individuals start saving more and spending less!

Less spending will lead to less purchase of goods and services. Hence factories will cut down on production and / or lay off workers. This will lead to further fall in demand leading to further layoffs. Eventually this vicious cycle will lead to deflation .

Hence, if everyone starts saving more, the economy will most certainly go down the drain. So what is the Indian government doing to induce people to save less and spend more? Typically governments have three major tools in their armory:

Reduce Interest rates: If interest rates on bank deposits fall, savers have less incentive to save. Also individuals will get cheaper loans to buy cars and houses. Companies will also find it easier to raise capital to build more factories.

Reduce Tax: Reducing tax on goods and services makes them cheaper, hence people buy more. Also reducing income tax means people have more money to spend. Alternatively, increasing salaries of government employees can have the same effect.

Increasing Government expenditure: Building new roads, bridges, upgrading ports, etc. can result in a huge increase in employment, leading to an increased spending.

India’s phenomenal growth in the last 5-6 years has been driven by a 300 million strong middle class, which was out on a spending spree. Now, with the middle class feeling the pinch of the economic crisis, they are starting to save more and cut back on their spending. The Indian government has already reduced interest rates, cut taxes selectively, and increased salaries to government employees. However, the results have been far from encouraging. The government will have to act forcefully and decisively before things start getting worse.


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This post presents a point of view which differs from conventional wisdom. Apart from being a good read (hopefully), it can also be a good starting point to help readers, preparing for CAT (IIM) or other MBA interviews, think differently. Since the data / facts for these posts are derived from a host of sources and websites, readers are advised to cross-check the authenticity before using them anywhere.

1 comment:

  1. Vaibhav -

    Nice post. At least here in the US government seems to be focussed currently on increasing government expenditure (G). A study finds 1% increase in government size decreases the rate of economic growth by 0.143%

    Rather than redistributing money, I think the focus should be on improving long-term productivity. This means reducing marginal tax rates to encourage working, saving, and investing. It also means promoting free trade, cutting unnecessary red tape, and streamlining wasteful spending that all weaken the private sector's ability to generate income and create wealth.

    Sunil Tahilramani

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